Arsenal lead xG race as Premier League season takes shape
With more than half the campaign gone, expected goals data is painting a clear picture of how the Premier League is likely to unfold. Arsenal top the charts in xG difference, suggesting they are the strongest side in the division and favourites to win the title, while Manchester City remain competitive but less dominant than in previous seasons under Pep Guardiola.
Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle and Chelsea are locked in a battle for the remaining Champions League places, with three spots already looking secure. At the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest and Leeds are performing far better than West Ham, meaning the relegation fight appears all but settled. Wolves, despite a poor points tally earlier in the season, have underlying numbers that suggest they will comfortably avoid breaking Derby’s unwanted record of 11 points.
Arsenal fans can take confidence from history. In three of the past four seasons, the team with the highest xG difference has gone on to win the Premier League. The exception came in 2023-24, when City triumphed despite Arsenal’s superior underlying metrics. This year, Arsenal’s numbers are not as dominant as two years ago, but City’s aura of invincibility has faded.
Manchester United’s position in the xG table is striking given Ruben Amorim’s dismissal and his modest 32% win rate. The Red Devils had been improving before his exit, and interim boss Michael Carrick inherits a side performing like a top-six team in recent months.
Three clubs stand out for defying their xG: Aston Villa, Sunderland and Wolves. Villa and Sunderland have already surpassed expectations, with Opta giving Villa a 96% chance of Champions League football and Sunderland a 99% chance of survival. Their success has been built on elite finishing and outstanding goalkeeping, but the data suggests their form may cool as the season progresses. Wolves, meanwhile, have been far better than their early points tally implied, and their results are beginning to catch up with their performances.
Tottenham and Leeds provide cautionary tales. Spurs’ early points haul overstated their quality, while Leeds’ poor start belied strong underlying numbers. As the season has developed, both teams’ results have aligned more closely with their xG, showing how difficult it is to defy the data for long.
Expected goals is not flawless, but its track record in predicting long-term success is strong. Arsenal statistically deserve the title, while Villa and Sunderland’s efficiency looks unsustainable. The months ahead will reveal whether the numbers hold true or whether football’s unpredictability delivers another twist.